So as we anticipate what could be the immensely consequential presidency of Donald Trump, we should close the books on this particular question. There’s never any way to prove counterfactuals, but we do have some pretty solid data rebutting Biden’s apparent belief that his self-defenestration saved Trump from defeat.

Your biggest issue is the perception of age,” Mike Donilon, the president’s longtime strategist, told him in 2022, according to people who heard him.