The view that the Chinese leadership was desperate to negotiate a trade deal, to avoid economic pain that could destabilize Chinese society and threaten the Chinese Communist Party’s monopoly on power, is common among China hawks in the United States. This analysis is partly accurate, but it has led many to draw false conclusions.

State media signaled Thursday that China may be open to entering trade talks with the U.S., boosting hopes that the world’s two largest economies will be able to strike a deal on tariffs. Any signs that trade tensions are easing would be good news for investors,